Overcoming the Planning Fallacy with Agile

Photo by Aron Visuals on Unsplash

Time management is hard, predicting how much time it will take to accomplish a task is even harder. This second challenge is attributed to the Planning Fallacy, after Daniel Kahnemans and Amoz Tversky’s influential paper on “intuitive prediction” in 1979.

Proposed solutions to overcoming the planning fallacy, by using past similar projects to estimate the amount of time needed, is like the Agile Practice of calculating “Velocity“.

Velocity is a piece of the larger practice of Agile, but simply put is the discipline of tracking past efforts so as to be better able to predict the amount of future work one can do in any given time frame. The Agile movement revolutionized the ways of working within the software development field and is slowly being integrated into other business disciplines in one form or another.

Here are a few resources to learn more about various agile practices and frameworks: Scaled Agile Framework; Agile Alliance; Scrum.org. Also keep an eye out for a future series of posts here diving a bit deeper into Agile and it’s history.

p.s. Shout out to The Comprehensivists for sharing the Quartz article

John Bogle, an investment innovator

John Bogle, the pioneer of index funds and the founder of Vanguard group, died at 89 yesterday. Those in the investment world, and largely in business too, appreciate his innovation and the impact it had for the common investor.

In an age where technology can solve everything and things of the past are treated as “outdated”, it’s worth pausing to recognize that the Index Fund is like robo-investing (e.g. Robinhood, Wealthfront) in it’s innovation.

Except, where robo-investing has potential, index funds have results.

RIP Jack.

p.s. An early 3-part series posted here on TILT was largely influenced by Jack’s index funds. You can read post 1 here.